Reassessing My Tech-Heavy Portfolio: Is It Time to Take the AI Bubble Seriously?

I'm writing this to gain some mental clarity amid mounting concerns about an AI bubble and potential market correction. Tech stocks have been hit particularly hard recently, as investor sentiment has weakened following reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing sector rotation away from growth stocks.

At first, I wanted to dismiss the negative headlines. After all, we've seen this pattern before: financial pundits and media outlets sound the alarm about an impending crash, investors buy the dip, prices recover, and the cycle repeats.

But a recent portfolio analysis gave me pause. When I asked an AI tool to review my holdings, the assessment was sobering. My portfolio was heavily concentrated in tech stocks and didn't align with my stated risk tolerance. Even more concerning, what I had considered a diversified portfolio was actually "di-worse-ification", too many individual holdings creating unnecessary complexity without genuine diversification.

This prompted me to examine whether fears of an AI bubble are justified. Several warning signs suggest we may be in the early stages of one, even if we haven't reached catastrophic levels yet.

Red Flags I'm Watching

The valuations of many AI companies assume massive, sustained revenue growth that may not materialize. Meanwhile, enormous capital is flooding into the sector, with companies spending aggressively to stay ahead in the AI race. Take the $500 billion Stargate project involving OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank. Despite this scale of investment, OpenAI remains unprofitable, and Oracle's rising debt levels to finance such ventures are concerning.

Another multi-billion dollar deal illustrates the questionable economics at play. Microsoft and Nvidia recently invested approximately $15 billion in Anthropic (OpenAI's rival), with Anthropic committing to spend $30 billion on Microsoft Azure cloud services. This allows cloud providers like Microsoft to report impressive growth in "AI Revenue." However, this arrangement appears somewhat circular, the "revenue" is essentially their own investment capital flowing back to them.

The Buffett Indicator, which compares the total value of the U.S. stock market to GDP, currently sits around 215%. For context, it peaked at roughly 200% during the dot-com crash, suggesting the market may be significantly overvalued and a correction could be long overdue.

My Plan Going Forward

Taking the AI's feedback seriously and acknowledging my own growing unease, I'm making several portfolio adjustments:

• Reduce tech concentration by taking profits on some positions

• Simplify my holdings by trimming smaller positions to create a more manageable portfolio

• Adopt a core-satellite strategy: 70% in ETFs for stable, diversified exposure and 30% in high-quality individual stocks

A Reality Check

I'm not a finance expert or quantitative analyst. I recognize my limitations, and I know I'm not equipped to weather a severe market downturn without making strategic changes now. Sometimes the most important investment decision is acknowledging what you don't know and adjusting accordingly.

Froth and Fortitude: A Search for Value in an Overheated Market

The rally in US equities has been underpinned by two key factors: the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy and a weakening dollar that has enhanced the appeal of American assets to foreign investors. In addition, the market is expecting two additional rate cuts before year-end, which further fueled the rally.

Technology companies, particularly those positioned at the forefront of artificial intelligence innovation, have led the charge with substantial price appreciation. However, this rapid ascent has raised legitimate questions about valuation sustainability. The AI narrative has captured retail investor imagination, potentially creating fear-of-missing-out dynamics and questions arising if US equity is currently in a bubble now. 

Asian equities have also seen considerable gains despite lingering US-China trade tensions. China's CSI 300 Index has gained approximately 17.3% year-to-date, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has climbed about 21%. This performance reflects robust support from technology, consumer, and industrial sectors, bolstered by targeted policy measures and economic stimulus initiatives.

Singapore has emerged as a standout performer, with the Straits Times Index breaking through 4,000 points for the first time, a 17% gain year-to-date. Recent equity market reforms designed to enhance liquidity and transparency have successfully attracted increased foreign capital inflows.

The cryptocurrency market has staged a dramatic comeback, with Bitcoin surging to an unprecedented $126,000 in early October, marking an extraordinary 80% year-to-date gain. Ethereum has similarly impressed, rising roughly 78% from its early-year lows.

Gold has shattered records as well, breaching $4,000 per ounce with a year-to-date gain exceeding 50%. Despite Warren Buffett's longstanding characterization of gold as an "unproductive asset," investors continue to seek its safe-haven properties amid economic uncertainty.

In such a frothy market environment, identifying quality investments that deliver consistent returns becomes increasingly critical. I find myself aligned with Adam Khoo's investment philosophy, which emphasizes businesses with strong revenue growth trajectories and durable competitive advantages.

Given current valuations and the speculative fervor surrounding AI, I have deliberately avoided technology stocks. Instead, my recent investment activity has focused on the following opportunities (please note: this does not constitute investment advice; readers should consult their own financial advisors before making investment decisions):

Centurion Accommodation REIT – Positioned to benefit from sustained demand for worker accommodation driven by major infrastructure projects, including Changi Airport Terminal 5.

Hermès – Despite premium valuations and headwinds in the luxury sector, I believe the company's earnings quality and brand strength justify the investment.

Copart – This online vehicle auction platform appears undervalued relative to its market position and growth potential, prompting me to establish a new position.

PepsiCo – A defensive holding showing early signs of recovery following encouraging Q3 results.

UnitedHealth Group – After finding support, this healthcare giant offers compelling value for long-term investors.

Additionally, I have allocated capital to US Treasury bills to capture attractive yields while maintaining liquidity, and purchased physical gold as a strategic portfolio diversifier.

The current market environment still offers pockets of opportunities which demands disciplined analysis and selective positioning. By focusing on quality businesses with sustainable earnings power and maintaining appropriate diversification, I hope I can navigate this rally while managing downside risks effectively.

Spend Your Life, Not Just Your Money

Sometimes we live through life as if we have an endless supply of tomorrows. We delay, we postpone, we tell ourselves "someday." And yes, delayed gratification is a cornerstone of sound financial planning. But there's a dangerous tipping point where prudent saving crosses into unhealthy hoarding, where we sacrifice living today for a tomorrow that may never come.

Time passes whether we use it or not. We can never recapture moments that have slipped away. Your children won't be young again. Your body won't always be capable of that adventure. Your parents won't be here forever. It makes no sense to let meaningful opportunities pass by simply out of fear of "squandering" our money.

Financial skill isn't just making money, it's also deciding what makes you happy and then deliberately converting your wealth into those experiences. This requires a fundamental shift in how we think about spending.

Consider this: life experiences have an expiration date. The timing of when you spend your money matters enormously because different experiences suit different life stages. Backpacking through Southeast Asia hits differently at 25 than at 65. Playing on the floor with your toddler can only happen while they're toddlers. Certain windows close, and they don't reopen.

Without deliberate planning, we simply coast on autopilot toward our final destination. We accumulate, defer, and repeat, until suddenly we're out of time.

Hence, I believe in accumulating memory dividends. Unlike financial investments that compound in your portfolio, memory dividends compound when you share them with others. When you invest in experiences, you don't just live a more engaged and interesting life, you create more of yourself to share with the people around you.

Think about how often your best conversations revolve around shared experiences: "Remember when we..." These memories become the fabric of your relationships, the stories that bind you to others long after the moment has passed.

Sometimes we are too fixated on the financial metrics, say for example investing in a property: loan terms, interest rates, potential appreciation, rental yield, etc. I'm not saying these are not important, but we often completely ignore the other side of the equation: How will we use this property to invest in our own personal experiences?

Could this home be where you create irreplaceable moments with your children? Where your family gathers for decades of holidays? Where your friends feel welcomed and connected? These aren't soft considerations; they're the actual returns that will matter most when you look back on your life.

The same principle applies to smaller decisions. Before automatically cutting that daily coffee to save for a year-end trip, think it through deliberately. Maybe that morning ritual with a colleague is actually creating meaningful connection. 

Many wealthy people fall into a peculiar trap: as their wealth accumulates, they keep moving their financial goalposts. First, it's $1 million, then $5 million, then $10 million. The target keeps receding into the distance.

However, if you spend countless precious hours of your life acquiring money, and then die without converting that money into life, you've wasted those hours. Time is the one asset you can't earn back, no matter how good your returns are.

You might think that as people age and their mortality becomes more salient, they'd spend more freely, racing to enjoy their wealth before it's too late. The data shows exactly the opposite. Spending actually declines as people age. We become more conservative, more fearful, more focused on preservation rather than utilization.

This means we need to actively counteract our natural tendencies. We need to learn how to maximize our lives with the money we have. Once money is ours, we should be exchanging it for whatever will help us live the best life we can, not just for ourselves, but for the people we love.

The message isn't to spend recklessly or abandon financial planning. It's to recognize that the point of money isn't the accumulation itself, it's what that money can do for your actual lived experience.

Start investing in memory dividends early. Be deliberate about creating experiences at the right life stage. Don't wait until death is knocking to ask yourself what you've been doing all this time.

Your money has no value sitting in an account after you're gone. Its only value is in how it enriches the finite time you have on this earth.

Escaping the Grind, Entering the Void

Work often feels like a prison of pointless meetings, impossible deadlines, and managing your boss's latest whims. FIRE promises the ultimate escape, financial freedom from corporate nonsense. But here's where it gets uncomfortable: I recently asked myself what I'd actually do with those extra 40+ hours per week. To be honest, I have no clue. This made me question whether FIRE is simply an elaborate escape route from work stress rather than a journey toward something meaningful.

After years of fantasizing about escaping the 9-to-5 grind, I realized I had no concrete plan for filling that void. Sure, work can be soul-crushing, but it also provides something we rarely acknowledge, a built-in sense of purpose and automatic social connection. Strip that away, and you're left with unlimited time and the pressure to make it meaningful.

Here's the deeper problem: we've been conditioned for productivity since childhood. Constantly competing, multitasking, optimizing every moment, we're culturally programmed to believe that doing more equals more success. But after leaving work or reaching FIRE, this compulsion to fill every hour with measurable achievement often intensifies. We end up creating a different kind of prison, one where hyper-productivity actually diminishes real satisfaction and well-being.

Our relentless hustle often masks a deeper discomfort with stillness. Can we truly embrace slow travel, deep reading, meandering conversations, or simple reflection without feeling guilty about "wasting time". Having hustled since my student days, I genuinely don't know if I can sit comfortably with unstructured moments.

Will I be truly able to let go and develop comfort with stillness to truly immerse myself in the experience of slow travel, deep reading or some other hobby of mine? 

The cruel irony? Trading the stress of too little time for the anxiety of too much time might not be the upgrade we think it is.

This realization has shifted my perspective. Retiring now probably isn't the right move, but the "FI" part remains crucial. Working with a financial safety net beneath you beats working like your life depends on the job. Financial independence gives you options, time to find better work if your current role sours, leverage to negotiate reduced schedules, and most importantly, the freedom to work from choice rather than desperation. 

Personally, I might need a change in my thinking that we cannot just define a life well lived by checking boxes or performing perfectly optimized routines, rather it should be defined by presence, connection, and the richness of slower experiences. Learning to value these experiences, and reframing how “productivity” is defined, allows for a healthier, more sustainable enjoyment of one’s newfound freedom after the rat race.

The Invisible Portfolio: How Human Capital and Stillness Build Real Wealth

Sometimes I wonder if it’s a good thing to check my net worth regularly

Sure, it feels great when the numbers climb, but what happens when they plummet? The gut punch of watching your net worth crater during a market downturn reveals exactly why obsessive tracking might be doing more harm than good. When a spreadsheet can dictate your mood, you've turned wealth building into an emotional rollercoaster.

Here's the thing: wealth building is a lifelong marathon, not a daily sprint. Checking your net worth at any single moment is like judging a movie by one frame, it tells you almost nothing meaningful. Worse, it often serves as nothing more than a personal finance vanity metric, a number to boost your ego or crush your spirit.

But the real problem runs deeper. Traditional net worth calculations paint an incomplete, often misleading picture of financial health. They don't reflect actual financial flexibility or security. Consider this: someone with $50,000 in cash and liquid investments might be more financially secure than a "billionaire" whose wealth is locked up in illiquid assets. 

Rethinking What "Net Worth" Really Means

The traditional definition of net worth misses something crucial: human capital. Picture two people, a recent graduate drowning in student debt versus someone who just inherited millions. By conventional metrics, the inheritor wins hands down. But dig deeper: the graduate has drive, ambition, and decades to build skills and networks. The inheritor? Maybe they're content to coast on family money, slowly squandering their head start.

Fast-forward ten years. Who do you think will be in a stronger position?

This isn't just theoretical. Your skills, relationships, growth mindset, and ability to adapt to changing markets are assets, perhaps your most valuable ones. The recent graduate who lands the right mentorship, develops marketable skills, and builds a strong professional network is accumulating wealth that doesn't show up on any balance sheet but will compound for decades.

The Human Capital Advantage

Rather than limiting "assets" to cash, stocks, and property, what if we included human capital in our calculations? Skills that appreciate over time. Networks that open doors. The ability to learn, adapt, and create value. These invisible assets often outperform traditional investments, especially early in your career.

For young professionals, seeing a negative net worth isn't the end of the world, it's often the beginning of wealth building. Instead of wasting mental energy tracking numbers that will naturally improve over time, focus on tracking what you can control: your personal growth, skill development, and relationship building.

After all, you can actively invest in human capital every single day. Your financial net worth? That might grow slowly, but your human capital can compound rapidly with the right focus and effort. People can actively invest in human capital daily while financial net worth might grow slowly. 

The Dangerous Urge to "Fix" Everything

Another insidious side effect of frequent net worth tracking is the compulsive need to tinker. Every dip triggers an itch to "do something", rebalance portfolios, chase hot investments, or panic-sell during downturns. It's like constantly adjusting your car's steering wheel on a straight highway; you'll end up swerving all over the road. The harsh truth? Most of the time, the best financial strategy is delightfully boring: do absolutely nothing.

But humans aren't wired for inaction. We see a problem (declining numbers) and feel compelled to solve it, even when the "problem" is just normal market volatility. This intervention bias has cost investors billions because they can't resist the urge to react to short-term fluctuations and buy high during euphoric peaks and sell low during fearful valleys, turning temporary paper losses into permanent real ones.

By checking your net worth less frequently, you remove the emotional triggers that lead to poor decisions. You can't panic about market movements you don't see. You can't second-guess a long-term strategy based on short-term noise. Sometimes the most productive thing you can do for your financial future is to close the app, ignore the numbers, and let compound interest work its quiet magic while you focus on what actually moves the needle: earning more, spending wisely, and growing your human capital.

Don’t Buy the Buzz — Buy Your Freedom

Picture this: you're finally on that well-deserved holiday, determined to switch off from the daily grind. Then your phone buzzes with news that a newly listed stock has surged 100% on its first day, or that a property development has sold 90% of its units within hours. Despite your best efforts to ignore these distractions and enjoy your break, you return home to discover that friends who acted on these opportunities have multiplied their investments tenfold whilst you were relaxing on the beach.

This scenario perfectly captures the fear of missing out (FOMO) that plagues modern investors. At its core, FOMO stems from our insatiable desire for wealth, a desire that grows precisely because we measure our financial success relatively rather than absolutely. We don't simply want enough money; we want more than others have.

 

The psychology behind investment FOMO is so powerful that some entrepreneurs deliberately exploit it. Thomas Healy, founder and CEO of Hyliion, a clean energy technology company, became the youngest self-made billionaire in the US at just 33. He has openly admitted to exploiting investors' greed and fear, actively cultivating FOMO to secure funding for his ventures. This candid admission reveals an uncomfortable truth: whilst you're trying to make rational investment decisions, others are specifically targeting your emotional vulnerabilities to separate you from your money.

Below are some ways to combat financial FOMO as advised by Sam Dogen, aka Financial Samurai (I strongly encourage readers to check out his blog):

1. Build a Core Portfolio You Rarely Touch

Hold a diversified base you barely ever trade like an S&P 500 index fund, broad bond fund, or real estate allocation. Knowing most of your net worth is riding on the general growth of the economy frees you from chasing every shiny new asset. Over time, this “set-and-forget” block will compound beneath the noise.

2. Allocate a “FOMO Fund”

Designate a small slice of your capital (around 5 percent) for speculative bets. This controlled sliver lets you dabble in emerging trends like cryptocurrency, without risking your core plan. When that itch to chase the next hot ticker strikes, your FOMO fund is there to scratch it.

3. Systematize Your Investing with Automation

Set up recurring transfers into your main portfolios and your FOMO fund. Whether it’s weekly or monthly, dollar-cost averaging removes the emotional roller coaster of timing the market. You’ll build wealth steadily, ignore headlines more easily, and keep your overall strategy intact.

4. Use Opportunity Cost as a Filter

Before jumping on any hype train, pause and ask:

• What goals or meaningful experiences might I be sacrificing?

• Could this money be better spent on travel, education, or time with loved ones?

• Am I trading peace of mind for the thrill of high-volatility speculation?

Weighing potential gains against what you might lose helps you make more grounded, intentional choices. Personally, I find this reflection especially important. There’s often no substitute for quality time with family and I wouldn’t trade peace of mind and those moments of connection for a shot at the next hot investment.

5. Define “Enough” Clearly

FOMO grows when “more” feels indefinite. Decide what financial freedom means for you, whether it’s covering monthly expenses, funding five years of travel, or securing a down payment. Once you hit that benchmark, any extra gains become a bonus instead of a necessity.

6. Change Your Environment

Peer pressure and constant market chatter can inflame FOMO. If you live in a high-intensity financial hub, carve out regular retreats to quieter locales or surround yourself with communities focused on sustainable wealth rather than get-rich-quick schemes. A calmer backdrop makes it easier to stay the course.

I’ll admit I’ve felt the pull of financial FOMO, especially during the crypto craze. Whenever a new altcoin blew up on Twitter or Reddit, it was like a siren song luring me to smash “buy.” To snap myself out of it, I started hunting down contrarian takes, deep dives and warning pieces that laid out exactly why the hype might be hollow and patience pays off far more often than panic. 

Financial FOMO is less about the profits you might miss and more about the self-trust and serenity you risk sacrificing. When that itch to chase the latest market frenzy strikes, pause and ask yourself: whose story am I investing in, mine, or someone else’s hype? True wealth isn’t found in fleeting triple-digit returns but in the quiet confidence you earn by investing with clarity, purpose, and unshakable peace of mind.

Instinct vs Insight: The Masayoshi Son Playbook

Most investors would have heard of Warren Buffet but probably not many would have heard of Masayoshi Son, aka the Japanese Warren Buffet. He is a Japanese entrepreneur and the founder, chairman, and CEO of SoftBank Group, one of the world’s most influential technology investment firms. Few investors embody the extremes of visionary ambition and costly risk-taking quite like Masayoshi Son. He has built a reputation for making audacious bets on the companies of tomorrow, sometimes with astonishing success, and sometimes with equally spectacular failure.

Central to Son’s strategy in recent years is the Vision Fund, a nearly $100 billion war chest launched in 2017 and backed by sovereign wealth funds, tech giants, and banks. Conceived as the world’s largest technology investment fund, it set out to identify and dominate the “AI revolution” and the next generation of category-defining companies. For retail investors, the Vision Fund’s audacious track record offers valuable lessons, not just in spotting transformative trends, but also in understanding the risks of excess capital, concentration, and unbridled optimism.

The best and most famous bet by him is undoubtedly the $20 million investment in Ali Baba in 2000. He began divesting Ali Baba in 2020 and booked a profit of approximately 1.26 trillion yen (about $8.5 billion USD) from divesting its Alibaba stake, which amounted to roughly 425 times its original investment. Although it’s an impressive trade, the key takeaway is how he made the decision to invest. He had frequently described his investment process as an "instinct," an "animal smell," where he senses the "gut instinct of an underdog entrepreneur." This method was also applied to his Alibaba investment. He was a strong believer in his ability to see the future and bet on the most ambitious entrepreneurs and this self-belief, amplified by his past successes made him overconfident and become a core driver of the fund’s strategy. I found it quite incredulous that someone managing billions of dollars could base their investment thesis on gut instinct and his past wins could probably be due to just sheer luck. Everyone looks like a genius when the tides are up, you only see who is swimming naked when the tide comes down.

His subsequent investment picks based on his gut instincts didn't go as planned. But the most infamous case was probably WeWork. It was pretty incredible that he invested $4.4 billion into WeWork after just a 12-minute meeting with CEO Adam Neumann. The investment in WeWork has been nothing short of disastrous with total losses estimated to be around $14.3 billion to $14.4 billion. Key Lesson 1: You need to have a viable investment strategy rather than just relying on “instinct” in order to be a successful investor. Stay humble, don't get overly elated over a sudden investment windfall and keep your ego in check because your “stroke of genius” could be down to just dumb luck.

Masayoshi was also convinced about the potential of AI and its impact on society way before all the AI hype materialized and he even made an investment of around $700 million in Nvidia in 2018. Strangely enough, he had conviction and an investment thesis this time round, but he still divested all his Nvidia holdings in 2019 for about $3.3 billion, locking in a 4.7x return. The main reason for the sale was to show a return as the Vision Fund faced pressure and to secure investment for Vision Fund 2. We all know now this was a disastrous decision as if he held Nvidia till today, his stake would be worth around $150-$160 billion. It was a very painful lesson for him, and he even stated Nvidia was "the fish that got away."  Key Lesson 2: The power of compounding is a powerful wealth builder so try your absolute best not to trap yourself in a situation where you would be forced to sell your stocks, especially the ones you have the strongest conviction. 

In the end, Masayoshi Son’s story is not just a cautionary tale, it’s a mirror held up to every investor’s ambition. His journey reminds us of that vision without discipline can be a double-edged sword, and that instinct, while occasionally brilliant, is no substitute for rigorous strategy and patience. The line between genius and gambler is often drawn in hindsight, and Son has danced on both sides of it. For retail investors, the lesson is clear: conviction must be earned, not assumed; and the true test of wisdom is not in spotting the next big thing, but in knowing when to hold on, when to let go, and when to simply wait. After all, in investing, as in life, the biggest wins often come to those who resist the urge to chase and instead choose to compound.