Friday, July 25, 2025

Geo-Arbitraging: Rebalancing Time and Territory for Maximum ROI

The idea of super commuting isn't new and it's the practice of living far from your workplace often in a different city or even country and traveling long distances to work, sometimes weekly or just a few times a month. These commutes can involve hours-long drives, train rides, or even flights and it’s often a strategic lifestyle choice where super commuters endure the long hours of travel to leverage the wage and cost-of-living gap between two locations. It’s a way to “game the system” by combining the best of both worlds: strong income and affordable living.

There are already numerous videos or articles of people chronicling their super commuting experience. One example is Mr Chen Shao Chun, a 39-year-old Singaporean who used to work at Google. When he was retrenched, he decided to move to Chiangmai to escape the rat race, and he is currently employed as a lecturer at NUS and he commutes one day per week from Chiangmai to Singapore for work. He is also a content creator and I find his youtube videos pretty insightful, you can check out his videos at this link

His one day per week job translates to a high per hourly rate which he states is achievable by leveraging on your expertise in a field and becoming a recognized Subject Matter Expert (SME). A high per-hourly rate means you can work considerably fewer hours while still earning enough to cover all your living expenses. But there is no free lunch in this world, he had to spend years of dedication and planning to improve his skills in sales and marketing before he managed to get this job at NUS. 

As I dove deeper into stories of geo-arbitrage and extreme commuting, I couldn't help but reflect on a chapter of my own: a six-month training stint in New Zealand. While it wasn’t a textbook case of geo-arbitrage or even remotely feasible for super commuting, it offered some surprising financial and lifestyle upsides.

New Zealand isn’t exactly cheap and flying back and forth to Singapore weekly was out of the question. But thanks to corporate housing, my rent was fully covered. With no major living expenses and a stable SGD-NZD exchange rate, my take-home value (if not my actual salary) got a meaningful bump. More than that, the hidden gem was lifestyle arbitrage: I clocked in early, knocked off before 5 p.m., and actually had time to shop for groceries, cook real meals, and explore the country on weekends without a whatsapp notification in sight.

This wasn’t about retiring in Chiang Mai on $30 a day. It was about extracting lifestyle gains and mental clarity, returns rarely discussed in traditional financial models. Even though I wasn’t technically saving more, the quality-of-life "dividends" paid handsomely.

Opportunities like this aren’t common, and today’s tight labor market and mobility constraints don’t make things easier. But if the chance to work overseas, even temporarily knocks, think beyond just dollars and cents. Sometimes, the highest ROI comes not from boosting your income, but from radically rebalancing how you spend your time.


Saturday, July 19, 2025

Will stablecoins steal Visa swipe ?

The US Senate recently passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins of 2025 (GENIUS Act) on June 17, 2025, in a decisive 68-30 vote, marking a watershed moment for cryptocurrency regulation and the integration of digital assets into America's financial infrastructure.

What Are Stablecoins, and Why Should Investors Care About Upcoming Regulations?  

Stablecoins are a unique segment of the cryptocurrency market engineered for price stability. Their value is typically pegged to a reserve asset—most commonly the U.S. dollar—making them fundamentally different from volatile tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Leading stablecoins such as USDC (USD Coin), USDT (Tether), and DAI aim to maintain a constant 1:1 ratio with the dollar through distinct stabilization mechanisms:

- Fiat-backed stablecoins (e.g., USDC, USDT) are supported by reserves in cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries.

- Crypto-backed stablecoins (e.g., DAI) use overcollateralization with assets like Ether.

- Algorithmic stablecoins rely on smart contracts to adjust token supply dynamically in response to market demand.

This engineered stability makes stablecoins critical infrastructure in digital finance. They're not only key to frictionless cross-border payments but also essential for trading on crypto exchanges, preserving liquidity, and interacting with decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. As regulators turn their attention to these assets, understanding the mechanics and implications of legislative shifts is becoming essential for market participants.

The GENIUS Act establishes comprehensive regulatory guardrails for payment stablecoins, requiring issuers to maintain full 1:1 backing through high-quality liquid assets including cash, Treasury securities, and Federal Reserve deposits. Key provisions include:

- Dual regulatory pathway: Issuers can choose federal oversight through the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) or state regulation, provided their outstanding stablecoins remain under $10 billion and state frameworks align with federal standards.

- Enhanced transparency: Monthly disclosure of reserve compositions is mandatory, with issuers managing over $50 billion in stablecoins subject to annual independent audits.

- Algorithmic stablecoin approach: Rather than implementing an outright ban, the Act mandates a Treasury Department study examining the risks of algorithmic stablecoins.

- Consumer safeguards: Stablecoin holders receive priority repayment rights in issuer bankruptcies, while anti-money laundering requirements strengthen compliance frameworks.

Having previously held USDC before divesting, I hadn't been closely following crypto developments until Visa's nearly 5% stock decline following the Act's passage caught my attention—particularly significant given Visa's substantial weight in my US equity portfolio. This market reaction raises the critical question: Are we witnessing the early stages of stablecoins displacing traditional payment networks like Visa and Mastercard?

From the looks of it,  the threat to Visa and Mastercard is pretty significant as the Act creates a clear federal framework for stablecoins, allowing not just banks but also retailers and tech firms to issue their own fully-backed digital dollars. The incentive to do so is huge as the transaction costs of stablecoins are lower as compared to the traditional payment networks. This could force Visa and Mastercard to lower their fees which will directly impact their revenue growth. 

The saving grace is that Visa has recognized the threat and is actively adapting to the rise of stablecoin-based payments by integrating stablecoins into its own infrastructure and expanding partnerships with fintech and crypto firms. Key strategies include:

- Stablecoin Settlement: Visa now allows clients to settle transactions using stablecoins like USDC and is expanding this capability to more partners and markets, including enabling 24/7 settlement and supporting additional stablecoins and blockchains.

- Cross-Border Payments: Visa is leveraging stablecoins to streamline cross-border transactions, reduce remittance costs, and enhance treasury operations, partnering with firms like Stripe, Yellow Card, Baanx, and Rain.

- Product Innovation: Visa is rolling out stablecoin-linked cards, enabling consumers to spend stablecoins at any Visa merchant, and launching platforms for banks to mint and manage stablecoins.

- Strategic Investments: Visa is investing in stablecoin-focused companies like BVNK to accelerate adoption and maintain leadership in digital payments.

- Bridging Ecosystems: Visa positions itself as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain, helping banks and businesses integrate stablecoins while maintaining access to its global network

Visa’s approach is to embrace stablecoins as a complement to its network, not a threat, aiming to remain central to global payments as the ecosystem evolves. It is still early to conclude stablecoins will eventually replace Visa as the dominant payment system but for now I will continue to monitor the situation.





Friday, July 11, 2025

Uber’s Comeback Story: Time to Hop On or Stay Cautious


Uber has been on my radar lately, and for good reason—its stock is showing some impressive momentum. That got me thinking: Is this ride-hailing giant revving up for a long-term surge, or is it just a temporary bounce? I decided to dig deeper to see if Uber could be a smart addition to my portfolio. Pls note this is not a buy or sell call or investment advice.

1. Company Overview

Founded in 2009 by Garrett Camp and Travis Kalanick after struggling to get a cab during a Paris snowstorm, Uber launched in San Francisco with just three cars and quickly became a global transportation disruptor. Under Kalanick's aggressive leadership, the company expanded rapidly worldwide by 2011, but his tenure ended in 2017 amid corporate culture scandals. During its global expansion, Uber battled fiercely with local rival Grab across Southeast Asia, including Singapore, engaging in costly price wars before ultimately selling its entire Southeast Asian operations to Grab in March 2018 for a 27.5% stake. Since Dara Khosrowshahi became CEO in 2017, Uber has transformed from a cash-burning startup into a profitable, diversified platform spanning ride-hailing, food delivery, and freight logistics, evolving from a simple solution to a rainy night transportation problem into one of the defining companies of the sharing economy era.

2. Business Model & Strategy

Uber operates on a multi-sided platform business model, connecting users (riders, eaters, shippers) with service providers (drivers, restaurants, carriers). Its primary revenue streams are commissions from rides and deliveries. The company leverages its technology and extensive network to facilitate these transactions. While it operates in highly competitive markets, its established brand and network effects provide a significant advantage.

Key Business Segments:

•Mobility (Ridesharing): This is Uber's core business, connecting riders with various transportation options. It's the largest revenue generator and also the most profitable segment. Uber benefits from strong network effects. As more riders use the platform, more drivers are attracted, leading to quicker pick-up times and better service, which in turn attracts more riders. This virtuous cycle strengthens its market position.

•Delivery (Uber Eats): In addition to restaurant deliveries, this segment also focuses on food, grocery, and other local commerce deliveries. It has shown significant growth and contributes substantially to Uber's overall revenue. Uber Eats have turned profitable in many mature markets

•Freight: This segment connects carriers with shippers, offering transparent pricing and logistics services. While it's a smaller portion of the business, it represents Uber's expansion into broader logistics. However, this segment is still unprofitable but Uber is  investing in scale, automation and AI to reduce deficiencies. 

Besides having a diversified business, it's also investing heavily into autonomous vehicles (AV). For example, it has partnered Waymo to integrate robotaxis in parts of the US via the Uber app. It is also collaborating with Serve Robotics, Coco Robotics, Cartken, and Nuro to expand last-mile food & grocery delivery across cities like Dallas, Miami, Austin, and Jersey City. Uber’s partnerships are central to its AV strategy and will likely determine its success in this space. Instead of developing AV technology in-house, Uber is positioning itself as the platform and logistics backbone for a global network of AV fleets by collaborating with leading tech companies. If successful, these alliances will enable Uber to lead in AV ride-hailing and delivery, boost margins, and defend its market position as the industry shifts toward autonomy

3. Financial Analysis

Revenue & Profitability

- Revenue Growth: Uber's revenue rose steadily over the past three years, from $31.9B (2022) → $37.3B (2023) → $44.0B (2024), reflecting strong demand and market expansion.

- Profit Turnaround: After a $9.1B net loss in 2022, Uber posted a $1.9B profit in 2023 and surged to $9.9B in 2024—showcasing successful operational scaling.

- Operating Income: Improved from a $1.8B loss (2022) to $1.1B (2023) and then $2.8B (2024), underscoring rising core business efficiency.

Financial Position

- Balance Sheet Strengthening: Assets grew significantly to $51.2B in 2024. Liabilities increased more slowly, boosting equity from $12.0B → $22.4B, signaling reduced debt reliance.

Cash Flow

- Operating Cash Flow: Jumped to $7.1B in 2024 from $642M in 2022 and $3.6B in 2023, providing robust liquidity.

- Investments: Continued use of cash for business development and assets.

- Financing: Net cash outflow in 2024 largely due to share buybacks and debt repayments.

Uber is on a strong upward trajectory—growing revenue, solidifying profitability, strengthening its balance sheet, and generating healthy cash flow

4. Risks & Challenges

Uber faces key regulatory risks, particularly ongoing legal disputes over driver classification — in California, it narrowly retained the right to treat drivers as contractors under Proposition 22, while in the UK and EU, rulings and pending laws are pushing toward reclassification as employees, raising potential labor costs. At the same time, stiff competition from regional powerhouses like Grab in Southeast Asia, Bolt in Europe, and DoorDash in the U.S. delivery market threatens Uber’s market share and profitability. 

Uber’s push into autonomous vehicles and AI also carries several strategic risks. Despite partnerships with prominent tech companies, the technology remains expensive, unproven at scale, and heavily scrutinized by regulators. Public trust is also a hurdle — safety concerns and unclear liability in the event of accidents could slow adoption. Moreover, autonomous vehicles require robust infrastructure and connectivity, which many cities still lack.

5. Conclusion 

As an investor, nothing turns me off than a controversial CEO who creates uncertainty and chaos in the company he is leading. The company has now stabilized under the new CEO and the impressive turnaround makes it a promising investment opportunity. The stock price is  currently hovering around $85 USD and I will continue to monitor the progress of the company and maybe enter a small position if the opportunity arises.  





Friday, July 4, 2025

UnitedHealth Group, an impulse buy ?

Recently, I made an impulse stock purchase without conducting much research. I looked left looked right, but nothing compelling caught my eye. Meanwhile, the spare USD in my account seemed to be urging me to invest in something—anything. That’s when I came across a healthcare and insurance stock from my shortlist and, without much hesitation, clicked "BUY." Pls note this is not investment advice or a BUY call.

That stock was none other than UnitedHealth Group (UHG). UHG is a leading American multinational company specializing in health care and insurance services. It operates through two primary businesses: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health benefits and insurance coverage, and Optum, which focuses on health care services, technology, and pharmacy benefits. The company serves millions of people worldwide, working with governments, employers, and health care providers to improve access to affordable, high-quality care. It's a Bonafide blue chip health care stock.

Lately, UHG has been taking a beating, with multiple negative developments occurring simultaneously. Below is a summary of some major challenges the company is currently facing:

Rising Medical Costs: After the pandemic, more patients started using healthcare services they had delayed, leading to a surge in medical claims and squeezing UnitedHealth's profit margins.

Earnings Misses and Withdrawn Guidance: The company missed earnings expectations in early 2025 and then withdrew its full-year financial guidance, which alarmed investors.

Leadership Turmoil: CEO Andrew Witty resigned abruptly, and the company reinstated a former CEO, which was seen as a sign of instability.

Regulatory and Legal Troubles: UHG is facing a criminal probe related to its Medicare Advantage program and has been accused of questionable practices, including allegedly paying nursing homes to reduce hospital transfers for Medicare patients.

Negative Publicity: The December 2024 murder of a key executive and ongoing investigations have further damaged investor confidence.

I first came across UHG through Adam Khoo’s YouTube videos. Knowing that he only invests in high-quality businesses gave me confidence in the stock. However, I admit that the main reason I bought it was simply because he holds it—without conducting much analysis myself. I realize that blindly following someone else’s investment decisions isn’t a wise move. My position in UHG isn’t large, and I don’t plan on adding more shares until I see greater clarity in how the company addresses its current challenges.


The Unlikely Nomad: How a 57-Year-Old Woman Retired at 43

I recently came across a CNA programe where a self proclaimed 57 year old Taiwanese lady with having "no advantages" due to a low ...