The Company That Built ChatGPT's Brain (But Forgot to Use It): Is Google Still Worth Investing

I have been a Google investor for some time and with all the hype in recent times on AI, I couldn't help but wonder what if Google had fully capitalized its considerable advantage in the early stages; it would have been miles ahead of the AI race. 

Well before ChatGPT burst onto the scene, Google had already staked its claim as a leader in artificial intelligence. In fact, it declared itself an “AI-first” company as early as 2016. Below are some of the foundational initiatives that shaped Google's approach to AI long before generative chatbots became mainstream:

Google Assistant

Launched in 2016, Google Assistant marked a pivotal moment in voice recognition and natural language processing. Embedded across Android devices, smart speakers, and other platforms, it allowed Google to deploy conversational AI at massive scale—collecting real-world data to refine its dialogue systems.

TensorFlow

Released in 2015, TensorFlow is Google’s open-source machine learning framework. It quickly became a staple for AI developers worldwide, fostering innovation both within Google and across the broader research community. This move helped cement Google's influence in the global AI ecosystem.

Magenta

Part of Google AI, the Magenta project explored deep learning in creative contexts—generating music, visual art, and more. Started in 2016, it signaled Google’s intent to push AI beyond analytical functions into expressive, artistic domains.

LaMDA (Language Model for Dialogue Applications)

Unveiled internally in 2021, LaMDA was Google’s conversational AI designed for fluid, open-ended dialogue. While its capabilities were on par with ChatGPT, it wasn’t made widely available due to concerns around safety, ethics, and potential misuse—highlighting Google’s cautious stance on public deployment.

Google Brain & DeepMind

Google Brain (founded in 2011) and DeepMind (acquired in 2014) formed the bedrock of Google’s AI research. DeepMind’s AlphaGo famously defeated top human players in 2016, showcasing breakthroughs in reinforcement learning. Both divisions were instrumental in pioneering neural networks and machine learning long before generative models gained attention.

AI in Search & Advertising

Google had already been baking AI into its core products for over a decade. A prime example is BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers), introduced in 2018, which improved Search by better interpreting user queries. This technology was an early application of the transformer architecture that later powered models like ChatGPT.

The Transformer Breakthrough

In 2017, Google introduced the Transformer architecture through the landmark paper “Attention Is All You Need” by Vaswani et al. In my view, this is perhaps Google’s most important AI innovation as this innovation revolutionized natural language processing and became the backbone for modern AI models including ChatGPT, LaMDA, and BERT. Without the transformer, there would probably be no ChatGPT. This was such a waste because the creation of the transformer gave Google a massive head start which they failed to capitalize. 

Despite having an enviable portfolio of AI research and product, chose to hold back rather than go full steam ahead. Below are some possible reasons the tech giant held back: 

Ethical and Safety Caution

Past controversies cast a long shadow. Google faced backlash after its 2018 Duplex demo, where its AI made lifelike phone calls, sparked privacy concerns. Project Maven, a military AI initiative, triggered employee protests. The high-profile departures of AI ethicists like Timnit Gebru further raised internal and public scrutiny. With LaMDA nearing launch, Google chose restraint over risk, wary of ethical pitfalls and reputational damage.

Protecting Its Core Business

Google’s advertising empire relies on users clicking search links. A chatbot offering direct answers could short-circuit this model, threatening the very foundation of Google’s profits. That kind of disruption, even in the name of innovation, was too risky to accelerate unchecked.

Bureaucracy and Risk Aversion

Google’s vast size came with internal inertia. Product decisions were subject to intense scrutiny from legal, PR, and policy teams. In contrast, OpenAI, with its leaner structure and singular focus, could experiment and iterate faster, turning bold ideas into viral breakthroughs.

LaMDA: A Missed Opportunity

LaMDA had the tech to challenge ChatGPT, but Google paused its public release. LaMDA was based on the transformer architecture as mentioned earlier so the moment for dominance slipped away while competitors seized it.

Q2 Performance

Alphabet reported strong results for Q2 2025, with revenues, profits, and growth across all key segments exceeding analyst expectations.

Key highlights:

Revenue: $96.4 billion, up 14% year over year (13% in constant currency), beating consensus estimates.

Net Income: $28.1–$28.2 billion, up 19% year over year.

EPS: $2.31, up 22% year over year and well above the $2.18 expected by analysts.

Segment performance:

Google Services: Revenue up 12% to $82.5 billion, driven by Google Search (up 12% to $54.2 billion), YouTube ads (up 13% to $9.8 billion), and subscriptions/platforms/devices (up 20% to $11.2 billion).

Google Cloud: Revenue up 32% to $13.6 billion, supported by strong enterprise demand for AI and cloud services. Cloud backlog and profitability both reached records.

Advertising: Total ad revenue was $71.34 billion, surpassing expectations.

Profitability and cash flow:

Operating income: Up 14%; operating margin at 32.4%.

Free cash flow: $5.3 billion for the quarter; $66.7 billion trailing twelve months.

Cash & securities: Ended Q2 with $95 billion on hand.

Strategic and product updates:

AI impact: AI features like Gemini and AI Overviews were cited as major growth drivers, positively impacting all businesses, especially Search and Cloud. 

Key factors include:

Explosion in user base: The Gemini app surpassed 450 million monthly active users in Q2 2025, up from 400 million in May and showing over 50% daily request growth quarter-over-quarter. This massive adoption has been fueled by its integration within Android, Search, and launch as a standalone app.

Product integration and reach: Gemini has been embedded across many core Google products, Search, Maps, Workspace, YouTube extended its reach to billions of users. In Search alone, features like AI Overviews (AI-generated summaries) now serve over 2 billion monthly users, making AI assistance a default part of routine search behavior.

Cloud growth and enterprise AI: Gemini also powers much of Google Cloud’s enterprise AI offerings, driving 32% year-on-year Cloud revenue growth as over 85,000 businesses integrated Gemini AI tools for productivity and automation.

Content creation: AI-enabled tools like Veo (video generation) and Workspace smart features, built on Gemini, saw explosive content creation, for example over 70 million AI-generated videos since May 2025.

Driving monetization: High engagement and time spent with AI features increased stickiness and opened pathways for future monetization, such as premium subscriptions, upselling in Cloud, and AI-powered advertising improvements.

Increased capital expenditure: Alphabet raised its 2025 CapEx outlook by $10 billion to $85 billion, reflecting surging demand for AI infrastructure and cloud services.

Stock reaction and outlook:

Results beat expectations, but the stock saw a modest drop in after-hours trading, possibly due to concerns over higher spending plans for AI and infrastructure.

CEO Sundar Pichai emphasized continued investment in AI and described broad momentum in all core business lines.

Overall, Alphabet’s strong top- and bottom-line growth was primarily driven by continued strength in Search, significant gains in Cloud/AI, and robust performance in YouTube and subscriptions. The company is spending aggressively on AI infrastructure to sustain and expand this momentum

Breakup risk

The potential breakup of Google, driven by U.S. and EU antitrust actions, is a landmark case targeting its monopolies in search and ad tech, with regulators proposing divestitures of Chrome, Android, or ad tools like AdX to curb its dominance; this threatens Google’s $237 billion ad revenue and AI strategy, which relies on integrated data from its ecosystem to power innovations like Gemini and AI Overviews, while also setting a precedent for regulating Big Tech, with a final ruling expected by August 2025 that could reshape Google’s business and the broader tech industry.

This case would likely drag on for years and could result in stock price volatility. Hopefully Google's case would end up like the anit-trust case faced by Microsoft from 1998 to 2000 which Microsoft eventually won. 

Ending thoughts

Although Google failed to fully capitalize on their earlier head start, I still believe it's still a dominant player in the AI space. I have been dabbling with Google AI products like Google AI Studio and Notebook LM and I have been impressed so far. Google AI Studio is a cloud-based platform that lets users interact with Gemini, Google’s family of advanced multimodal generative AI models. Notebook LM is one of their latest offerings and it’s an AI-powered research and note-taking tool that allows users to interact deeply with their own documents. One of its cool features even allows the user to convert the documents into podcast-style summaries for on-the-go learning. 

I feel the stock is still undervalued at this stage and I have been steadily adding shares during the dips. There is nothing I can do regarding the antitrust case but just wait and see how the situation unfolds. Please note this is not investment advice, so please do your own diligence before investing.

Investing Off the Beaten Path: Scandinavia Big Gun Kongsberg Gruppen

 Today, l’m exploring something a little different: an interesting Norwegian defense company. If defense stocks or European markets aren't your cup of tea, feel free to skip this one. Please note this is not investment advice and do your own diligence when investing.

1. Company Overview

Kongsberg Gruppen began in 1814 as a state arms factory, earning global acclaim with its Krag–Jørgensen rifle before diversifying into marine equipment and automotive components. By the 1950s, it was producing advanced air-defense cannons and, in 1972, the Penguin anti-ship missile. A 1987 export-control scandal prompted the defense arm’s spin-off as Norsk Forsvarsteknologi, which listed publicly in 1993 and reclaimed the Kongsberg Gruppen name in 1995. The Norwegian government has a 50% stake in the company and it operates three core divisions—defense & Aerospace, Maritime and Discovery—leveraging stable state backing and robust R&D to deliver high-margin missiles, naval systems and industrial software, well positioned for growth amid rising defense budgets and industry digitalization.

2. Business Model & Strategy

Kongsberg operates through three primary business areas: Kongsberg Maritime, Kongsberg defense & Aerospace, and Kongsberg Discovery.

Kongsberg Maritime delivers advanced systems for automation, propulsion, navigation, and remote vessel operations. It is a pioneer in autonomous shipping, notably through its collaboration with Yara International on the Yara Birkeland, the world’s first autonomous and fully electric container ship. KM also supports offshore energy ventures with solutions for dynamic positioning, subsea robotics, and hybrid power systems, serving key clients in shipping, offshore wind, and naval sectors.

Kongsberg defense & Aerospace is a leading supplier of advanced defense technologies, particularly remote weapon systems and precision-guided missiles. Its Naval Strike Missile (NSM) and Joint Strike Missile (JSM) are widely adopted by NATO allies, including the U.S. Navy and Royal Norwegian Navy. The division is also a key subcontractor in the F-35 fighter jet program and provides satellite technology through its Kongsberg NanoAvionics unit. Strategic partnerships with Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and the European Space Agency further anchor its international presence.

Kongsberg Discovery, established in 2023 following a spin-off from the Maritime division, specializes in ocean exploration, seabed mapping, and subsea monitoring. It is the industry leader in high-resolution multibeam sonar systems, and its technologies are used globally in deep-sea research, offshore energy, and fisheries management. Notably, the division has supported major initiatives like the Seabed 2030 project, which aims to map the entire ocean floor by 2030.

3. Financial Analysis

Below is a summary of the financial performance:

2024 Financial Performance:

Revenue Growth: Operating revenues increased 20.3% to NOK 48.9 billion from NOK 40.6 billion in 2023.

Order Intake Surge: Rose 34.3% to NOK 87.8 billion, boosting order backlog by 44.5% to a record NOK 127.9 billion.

Profitability Boost: Net profit grew 38% to NOK 5.1 billion from NOK 3.7 billion, with a strong return on equity at 32%.

Cash Flow Strength: Generated NOK 12.9 billion in free cash flow, reflecting high operational efficiency.

Q2 2025 Results:

Revenue Increase: Revenues up 20% year-on-year to NOK 13.9 billion.

EBIT Growth: EBIT rose 32.5% to NOK 1.92 billion, with an operating margin of 13.8%.

Maritime Division: Revenue grew 7% to NOK 6.39 billion; order intake at NOK 7.52 billion (book-to-bill ratio 1.18); EBIT margin fell to 11.2% due to offshore wind and mineral market pressures.

Discovery Segment: Revenue up 21% to NOK 1.23 billion; EBIT margin expanded to 18.8%, driven by subsea acoustics demand and Sonatech acquisition.

Defense & Aerospace: Revenue surged 38% to NOK 6.12 billion, fueled by missile and air-defense contracts (e.g., with Germany); new orders at NOK 9.84 billion; EBIT margin slightly down to 14.3%.

Despite posting strong growth  and a record order backlog, the stock crashed more than 10% due to concerns on rising costs, a dip in cash reserves, and quarterly revenue that fell just short of analyst expectations. Mixed analyst sentiment and the stock’s high valuation also contributed to the sell-off, as some investors took profits after a strong run-up.

4. Risks & Challenges

Kongsberg Gruppen faces several operational and macroeconomic risks. Its reliance on NATO-aligned defense contracts exposes it to shifting geopolitical priorities and potential budget cuts. As a high-tech manufacturer, it depends on complex global supply chains, making it vulnerable to component shortages and logistical disruptions. 

Currency fluctuations, especially between the NOK, USD, and EUR, can also affect profitability. Lastly, the rapid pace of innovation in defense, AI, and autonomy requires constant R&D investment to maintain competitiveness and avoid being outpaced by faster-moving rivals. Another point to note is that despite Norway being a resource rich and fiscally stable country, the NOK is not a safe haven and its value is often tied to energy markets and can be volatile in market downturns. 

5. Conclusion 

Currently I do have a small position in Kongsberg Gruppen via IBKR (Oslo Stock Exchange ticker KOG)  as I look to diversify my investments away from the US market. I also added on my position when the stock plunged around 10% after the announcement of Q2 results. Honestly even with the 10% drop, I still feel the stock is still overpriced but this is an investment which I’m comfortable to hold long term due to the Norwegian government holding a 50% stake.

Buying the Dip or Dipping Too Deep? Lessons from a PayPal Investment Ride

Over the past few years, I’ve had a wild ride with PayPal stock. I bought in during the highs, averaged down through the lows, and sold near the bottom. This journey has been humbling, and more importantly, educational.

Below are some key lessons which I learned.

Lesson 1: Random Buying and Selling Without a Framework

I started buying PayPal in early 2021 at $245.50, believing it had dipped from its highs and was a bargain. Then I added more at $271, only to watch it nosedive as Wall Street turned sour on fintechs. Instead of stepping back and reassessing, I doubled down multiple times—buying more at $205, $188, $167, and so on, all the way to $67.50. Along the way, I also sold some holdings at $131 and $91, which totally reflected my ignorance. Eventually, I panicked and decided to sell off most of my holdings at $57.55 in Feb 2024.

The mistake: I let emotions dictate my trades. I bought because prices were falling, not because I had high conviction in the business. I sold out of frustration when prices hit a new low, not because the fundamentals had changed for the worse.

The lesson: Don’t fly blind. Every trade needs a mental framework: Why am I buying or selling? What’s the long-term view? What would change my mind? Without these, it’s too easy to fall into the trap of “buy the dip” and “sell in despair.”

Lesson 2: Averaging Down Without Understanding the Business

Averaging down can be powerful, but only when you truly believe in the business. In my case, I didn’t.

PayPal was and still is under immense competitive pressure from the likes of Apple Pay, Google Pay, Block's Cash App, and even new platforms emerging globally. When eBay phased out PayPal as its default payment processor, it raised a red flag. Despite all this, I kept buying.

Why? Because the price kept dropping, and I wanted to “recover” my losses.

The mistake: I was speculating, not investing. I didn’t truly believe PayPal had a strong economic moat. I didn’t study its financials, customer retention metrics, or innovation pipeline. I was just hoping for a rebound.

The lesson: Before you buy a stock, ask yourself: Do I understand this company? Do I believe it can grow and compete over the next 5–10 years? If the answer is “not really,” it’s speculation not investment.

Lesson 3: Chasing Hype and Valuation Disconnects

In hindsight, my initial purchases were fueled by pandemic-era hype. PayPal surged as online spending exploded. The narrative was compelling: digital wallets, touch-free payments, e-commerce boom.

But the valuation became stretched and I didn’t question it. I bought at elevated prices without thinking, Is this growth sustainable?

When economies reopened, PayPal's user growth slowed. The post-pandemic world looked different, and the company's prior momentum faded.

The mistake: I bought into the narrative, not the numbers. I assumed the good times would continue and didn’t question whether the price reflected future potential.

The lesson: When a stock is surging, pause and assess: Is this growth real and sustainable? Or is it driven by temporary trends and market excitement? Always weigh hype against fundamentals.

The most painful mistake: Selling at the Bottom

I have since divested my entire Paypal holdings at a loss of almost 40%.

I didn’t have an exit strategy and I let frustration and fatigue guide me.

The lesson: Selling should be as intentional as buying. Exit based on valuation, business deterioration, or better opportunities not emotion.

Geo-Arbitraging: Rebalancing Time and Territory for Maximum ROI

The idea of super commuting isn't new and it's the practice of living far from your workplace often in a different city or even country and traveling long distances to work, sometimes weekly or just a few times a month. These commutes can involve hours-long drives, train rides, or even flights and it’s often a strategic lifestyle choice where super commuters endure the long hours of travel to leverage the wage and cost-of-living gap between two locations. It’s a way to “game the system” by combining the best of both worlds: strong income and affordable living.

There are already numerous videos or articles of people chronicling their super commuting experience. One example is Mr Chen Shao Chun, a 39-year-old Singaporean who used to work at Google. When he was retrenched, he decided to move to Chiangmai to escape the rat race, and he is currently employed as a lecturer at NUS and he commutes one day per week from Chiangmai to Singapore for work. He is also a content creator and I find his youtube videos pretty insightful, you can check out his videos at this link. 

His one day per week job translates to a high per hourly rate which he states is achievable by leveraging on your expertise in a field and becoming a recognized Subject Matter Expert (SME). A high per-hourly rate means you can work considerably fewer hours while still earning enough to cover all your living expenses. But there is no free lunch in this world, he had to spend years of dedication and planning to improve his skills in sales and marketing before he managed to get this job at NUS. 

As I dove deeper into stories of geo-arbitrage and extreme commuting, I couldn't help but reflect on a chapter of my own: a six-month training stint in New Zealand. While it wasn’t a textbook case of geo-arbitrage or even remotely feasible for super commuting, it offered some surprising financial and lifestyle upsides.

New Zealand isn’t exactly cheap and flying back and forth to Singapore weekly was out of the question. But thanks to corporate housing, my rent was fully covered. With no major living expenses and a stable SGD-NZD exchange rate, my take-home value (if not my actual salary) got a meaningful bump. More than that, the hidden gem was lifestyle arbitrage: I clocked in early, knocked off before 5 p.m., and actually had time to shop for groceries, cook real meals, and explore the country on weekends without a whatsapp notification in sight.

This wasn’t about retiring in Chiang Mai on $30 a day. It was about extracting lifestyle gains and mental clarity, returns rarely discussed in traditional financial models. Even though I wasn’t technically saving more, the quality-of-life "dividends" paid handsomely.

Opportunities like this aren’t common, and today’s tight labor market and mobility constraints don’t make things easier. But if the chance to work overseas, even temporarily knocks, think beyond just dollars and cents. Sometimes, the highest ROI comes not from boosting your income, but from radically rebalancing how you spend your time.

Will stablecoins steal Visa swipe ?

The US Senate recently passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins of 2025 (GENIUS Act) on June 17, 2025, in a decisive 68-30 vote, marking a watershed moment for cryptocurrency regulation and the integration of digital assets into America's financial infrastructure.

What Are Stablecoins, and Why Should Investors Care About Upcoming Regulations?  

Stablecoins are a unique segment of the cryptocurrency market engineered for price stability. Their value is typically pegged to a reserve asset—most commonly the U.S. dollar—making them fundamentally different from volatile tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Leading stablecoins such as USDC (USD Coin), USDT (Tether), and DAI aim to maintain a constant 1:1 ratio with the dollar through distinct stabilization mechanisms:

- Fiat-backed stablecoins (e.g., USDC, USDT) are supported by reserves in cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries.

- Crypto-backed stablecoins (e.g., DAI) use overcollateralization with assets like Ether.

- Algorithmic stablecoins rely on smart contracts to adjust token supply dynamically in response to market demand.

This engineered stability makes stablecoins critical infrastructure in digital finance. They're not only key to frictionless cross-border payments but also essential for trading on crypto exchanges, preserving liquidity, and interacting with decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. As regulators turn their attention to these assets, understanding the mechanics and implications of legislative shifts is becoming essential for market participants.

The GENIUS Act establishes comprehensive regulatory guardrails for payment stablecoins, requiring issuers to maintain full 1:1 backing through high-quality liquid assets including cash, Treasury securities, and Federal Reserve deposits. Key provisions include:

- Dual regulatory pathway: Issuers can choose federal oversight through the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) or state regulation, provided their outstanding stablecoins remain under $10 billion and state frameworks align with federal standards.

- Enhanced transparency: Monthly disclosure of reserve compositions is mandatory, with issuers managing over $50 billion in stablecoins subject to annual independent audits.

- Algorithmic stablecoin approach: Rather than implementing an outright ban, the Act mandates a Treasury Department study examining the risks of algorithmic stablecoins.

- Consumer safeguards: Stablecoin holders receive priority repayment rights in issuer bankruptcies, while anti-money laundering requirements strengthen compliance frameworks.

Having previously held USDC before divesting, I hadn't been closely following crypto developments until Visa's nearly 5% stock decline following the Act's passage caught my attention—particularly significant given Visa's substantial weight in my US equity portfolio. This market reaction raises the critical question: Are we witnessing the early stages of stablecoins displacing traditional payment networks like Visa and Mastercard?

From the looks of it,  the threat to Visa and Mastercard is pretty significant as the Act creates a clear federal framework for stablecoins, allowing not just banks but also retailers and tech firms to issue their own fully-backed digital dollars. The incentive to do so is huge as the transaction costs of stablecoins are lower as compared to the traditional payment networks. This could force Visa and Mastercard to lower their fees which will directly impact their revenue growth. 

The saving grace is that Visa has recognized the threat and is actively adapting to the rise of stablecoin-based payments by integrating stablecoins into its own infrastructure and expanding partnerships with fintech and crypto firms. Key strategies include:

- Stablecoin Settlement: Visa now allows clients to settle transactions using stablecoins like USDC and is expanding this capability to more partners and markets, including enabling 24/7 settlement and supporting additional stablecoins and blockchains.

- Cross-Border Payments: Visa is leveraging stablecoins to streamline cross-border transactions, reduce remittance costs, and enhance treasury operations, partnering with firms like Stripe, Yellow Card, Baanx, and Rain.

- Product Innovation: Visa is rolling out stablecoin-linked cards, enabling consumers to spend stablecoins at any Visa merchant, and launching platforms for banks to mint and manage stablecoins.

- Strategic Investments: Visa is investing in stablecoin-focused companies like BVNK to accelerate adoption and maintain leadership in digital payments.

- Bridging Ecosystems: Visa positions itself as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain, helping banks and businesses integrate stablecoins while maintaining access to its global network

Visa’s approach is to embrace stablecoins as a complement to its network, not a threat, aiming to remain central to global payments as the ecosystem evolves. It is still early to conclude stablecoins will eventually replace Visa as the dominant payment system but for now I will continue to monitor the situation.

Uber’s Comeback Story: Time to Hop On or Stay Cautious

Uber has been on my radar lately, and for good reason—its stock is showing some impressive momentum. That got me thinking: Is this ride-hailing giant revving up for a long-term surge, or is it just a temporary bounce? I decided to dig deeper to see if Uber could be a smart addition to my portfolio. Pls note this is not a buy or sell call or investment advice.

1. Company Overview

Founded in 2009 by Garrett Camp and Travis Kalanick after struggling to get a cab during a Paris snowstorm, Uber launched in San Francisco with just three cars and quickly became a global transportation disruptor. Under Kalanick's aggressive leadership, the company expanded rapidly worldwide by 2011, but his tenure ended in 2017 amid corporate culture scandals. During its global expansion, Uber battled fiercely with local rival Grab across Southeast Asia, including Singapore, engaging in costly price wars before ultimately selling its entire Southeast Asian operations to Grab in March 2018 for a 27.5% stake. Since Dara Khosrowshahi became CEO in 2017, Uber has transformed from a cash-burning startup into a profitable, diversified platform spanning ride-hailing, food delivery, and freight logistics, evolving from a simple solution to a rainy night transportation problem into one of the defining companies of the sharing economy era.

2. Business Model & Strategy

Uber operates on a multi-sided platform business model, connecting users (riders, eaters, shippers) with service providers (drivers, restaurants, carriers). Its primary revenue streams are commissions from rides and deliveries. The company leverages its technology and extensive network to facilitate these transactions. While it operates in highly competitive markets, its established brand and network effects provide a significant advantage.

Key Business Segments:

•Mobility (Ridesharing): This is Uber's core business, connecting riders with various transportation options. It's the largest revenue generator and also the most profitable segment. Uber benefits from strong network effects. As more riders use the platform, more drivers are attracted, leading to quicker pick-up times and better service, which in turn attracts more riders. This virtuous cycle strengthens its market position.

•Delivery (Uber Eats): In addition to restaurant deliveries, this segment also focuses on food, grocery, and other local commerce deliveries. It has shown significant growth and contributes substantially to Uber's overall revenue. Uber Eats have turned profitable in many mature markets

•Freight: This segment connects carriers with shippers, offering transparent pricing and logistics services. While it's a smaller portion of the business, it represents Uber's expansion into broader logistics. However, this segment is still unprofitable but Uber is  investing in scale, automation and AI to reduce deficiencies. 

Besides having a diversified business, it's also investing heavily into autonomous vehicles (AV). For example, it has partnered Waymo to integrate robotaxis in parts of the US via the Uber app. It is also collaborating with Serve Robotics, Coco Robotics, Cartken, and Nuro to expand last-mile food & grocery delivery across cities like Dallas, Miami, Austin, and Jersey City. Uber’s partnerships are central to its AV strategy and will likely determine its success in this space. Instead of developing AV technology in-house, Uber is positioning itself as the platform and logistics backbone for a global network of AV fleets by collaborating with leading tech companies. If successful, these alliances will enable Uber to lead in AV ride-hailing and delivery, boost margins, and defend its market position as the industry shifts toward autonomy

3. Financial Analysis

Revenue & Profitability

- Revenue Growth: Uber's revenue rose steadily over the past three years, from $31.9B (2022) → $37.3B (2023) → $44.0B (2024), reflecting strong demand and market expansion.

- Profit Turnaround: After a $9.1B net loss in 2022, Uber posted a $1.9B profit in 2023 and surged to $9.9B in 2024—showcasing successful operational scaling.

- Operating Income: Improved from a $1.8B loss (2022) to $1.1B (2023) and then $2.8B (2024), underscoring rising core business efficiency.

Financial Position

- Balance Sheet Strengthening: Assets grew significantly to $51.2B in 2024. Liabilities increased more slowly, boosting equity from $12.0B → $22.4B, signaling reduced debt reliance.

Cash Flow

- Operating Cash Flow: Jumped to $7.1B in 2024 from $642M in 2022 and $3.6B in 2023, providing robust liquidity.

- Investments: Continued use of cash for business development and assets.

- Financing: Net cash outflow in 2024 largely due to share buybacks and debt repayments.

Uber is on a strong upward trajectory—growing revenue, solidifying profitability, strengthening its balance sheet, and generating healthy cash flow

4. Risks & Challenges

Uber faces key regulatory risks, particularly ongoing legal disputes over driver classification — in California, it narrowly retained the right to treat drivers as contractors under Proposition 22, while in the UK and EU, rulings and pending laws are pushing toward reclassification as employees, raising potential labor costs. At the same time, stiff competition from regional powerhouses like Grab in Southeast Asia, Bolt in Europe, and DoorDash in the U.S. delivery market threatens Uber’s market share and profitability. 

Uber’s push into autonomous vehicles and AI also carries several strategic risks. Despite partnerships with prominent tech companies, the technology remains expensive, unproven at scale, and heavily scrutinized by regulators. Public trust is also a hurdle — safety concerns and unclear liability in the event of accidents could slow adoption. Moreover, autonomous vehicles require robust infrastructure and connectivity, which many cities still lack.

5. Conclusion 

As an investor, nothing turns me off than a controversial CEO who creates uncertainty and chaos in the company he is leading. The company has now stabilized under the new CEO and the impressive turnaround makes it a promising investment opportunity. The stock price is  currently hovering around $85 USD and I will continue to monitor the progress of the company and maybe enter a small position if the opportunity arises.  

UnitedHealth Group, an impulse buy ?

Recently, I made an impulse stock purchase without conducting much research. I looked left looked right, but nothing compelling caught my eye. Meanwhile, the spare USD in my account seemed to be urging me to invest in something—anything. That’s when I came across a healthcare and insurance stock from my shortlist and, without much hesitation, clicked "BUY." Pls note this is not investment advice or a BUY call.

That stock was none other than UnitedHealth Group (UHG). UHG is a leading American multinational company specializing in health care and insurance services. It operates through two primary businesses: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health benefits and insurance coverage, and Optum, which focuses on health care services, technology, and pharmacy benefits. The company serves millions of people worldwide, working with governments, employers, and health care providers to improve access to affordable, high-quality care. It's a Bonafide blue chip health care stock.

Lately, UHG has been taking a beating, with multiple negative developments occurring simultaneously. Below is a summary of some major challenges the company is currently facing:

Rising Medical Costs: After the pandemic, more patients started using healthcare services they had delayed, leading to a surge in medical claims and squeezing UnitedHealth's profit margins.

Earnings Misses and Withdrawn Guidance: The company missed earnings expectations in early 2025 and then withdrew its full-year financial guidance, which alarmed investors.

Leadership Turmoil: CEO Andrew Witty resigned abruptly, and the company reinstated a former CEO, which was seen as a sign of instability.

Regulatory and Legal Troubles: UHG is facing a criminal probe related to its Medicare Advantage program and has been accused of questionable practices, including allegedly paying nursing homes to reduce hospital transfers for Medicare patients.

Negative Publicity: The December 2024 murder of a key executive and ongoing investigations have further damaged investor confidence.

I first came across UHG through Adam Khoo’s YouTube videos. Knowing that he only invests in high-quality businesses gave me confidence in the stock. However, I admit that the main reason I bought it was simply because he holds it—without conducting much analysis myself. I realize that blindly following someone else’s investment decisions isn’t a wise move. My position in UHG isn’t large, and I don’t plan on adding more shares until I see greater clarity in how the company addresses its current challenges.